Shiyang River streamflow since AD 1765, reconstructed by tree rings,contains far‐reaching hydro‐climatic signals over and beyond the mid‐latitude Asian continent          下载免费PDF全文

Feng Chen  Yu‐jiang Yuan  Rui‐bo Zhang  Hui‐qin Wang  Hua‐ming Shang  Tong‐wen Zhang  Li Qin  Zi‐ang Fan 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2211-2222

In this study, the regional tree‐ring chronology of Picea crassifolia was used to estimate annual (September to August) streamflow of the Shiyang River for the period from AD 1765 to 2010. The linear regression model was stable and could explain 41.5% of the variance for the calibration period of 1955–2005. According to the streamflow reconstruction, dry periods with below average streamflow occurred in AD 1775–1804, 1814–1823, 1831–1856, 1862–1867, 1877–1885, 1905–1910, 1926–1932, 1948–1951, 1960–1963 and 1989–2002. Periods of relatively wet years are identified for AD 1765–1774, 1805–1813, 1824–1830, 1857–1861, 1868–1876, 1886–1904, 1911–1925, 1933–1947, 1952–1959, 1964–1988 and 2003–2010. Comparisons with the precipitation reconstructions from surrounding areas supplied a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. The Multitaper spectral and correlation analyses also suggested that the reconstructed streamflow variation in the Shiyang River could be associated with large‐scale atmospheric‐oceanic variability, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages among the streamflow reconstruction, NAO and ENSO suggest the connection of regional streamflow variations to the Asian monsoon and westerlies circulations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An integrated approach to the estimation of streamflow drought quantiles / Une méthode intégrée d’estimation des quantiles de sécheresse hydrologique     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)

Abstract

Abstract An approach was developed for combining streamflow drought information from synthetic (generated) data with data reconstructed based on palaeoclimatic information (tree ring widths). The tree ring data were used to reconstruct streamflow in periods when no streamflow data were collected. The reconstructed data were then used as a source of historical data for estimating drought severity quantiles. The generated data were obtained using a nearest neighbour resampling method while the tree ring reconstruction was accomplished using a regression model. The application of the approach was to data from the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The results demonstrate the feasibility and the utility of the approach for obtaining more accurate and precise estimates of extreme drought severity quantiles.  相似文献   

A hydrological record extension model for reconstructing streamflows from tree‐ring chronologies          下载免费PDF全文

Jose D. Salas  Zeyad Tarawneh  Franco Biondi 《水文研究》2015,29(4):544-556

Characterizing drought events is an important factor in designing and operating water resource projects, but instrumental hydrologic records are generally short (<100 years). Because estimates of drought statistics can improve when longer records are available, we developed a stochastic model to extend instrumental streamflows based on tree‐ring chronologies. This Record Extension plus Noise (or REXTN) model consists of an autoregressive term to account for the temporal persistence of streamflows, predictor variables with longer records, and a noise term. The noise term was included to avoid underestimating the variability of the flows and to generate multiple extensions, which offer the possibility of quantifying the uncertainty of drought statistics such as the critical drought. For cases where having multiple extensions is not desirable, a statistically based algorithm was developed to select a single extended record. Using a simulation experiment, model REXTN was found to perform better than other existing reconstruction methods. The model was then applied to extend streamflows of the Poudre River, CO, USA, based on tree ring‐chronologies back to the year 1600, and the reconstructions were used to determine drought statistics such as duration and magnitude. When results based on the classical linear regression model were compared with those calculated by model REXTN, the latter was found to better match flow and drought statistics from the instrumental records, as well as to give a broader range of drought duration and magnitude. The REXTN model provides a useful addition to the range of tools available to hydrologists for coping with the uncertainty associated with water resource management under future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamos with a flat α-effect distribution     

A. Brandenburg  I. Tuominen  F. Krause 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-3):95-112

Abstract

In order to obtain a better insight into the excitation conditions of magnetic fields in flat objects, such as galaxies, we have calculated critical dynamo numbers of different magnetic field modes for spherical dynamos with a flat α-effect distribution. A simple but realistic approximation formula for the rotation curve is employed. In most cases investigated a stationary quadrupole-type solution is preferred. This is a consequence of the flat distribution of the α-effect. Non-axisymmetric fields are in all cases harder to excite than axisymmetric ones. This seems to be the case particularly for flat objects in combination with a realistic rotation curve for galaxies. The question of whether non-axisymmetric (bisymmetric) fields, which are observed in some galaxies, can be explained as dynamos generated by an axisymmetric αω-effect is therefore still open.  相似文献   

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs     

Andrew R. Bell  Daniel E. Osgood  Benjamin I. Cook  Kevin J. Anchukaitis  Geoffrey R. McCarney  Arthur M. Greene  Brendan M. Buckley  Edward R. Cook 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(4):774-781

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future.  相似文献   

Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin II: unravelling human impacts and climate variability     

K. Mills  P. Gell  J. Gergis  P. J. Baker  C. M. Finlayson  P. P. Hesse 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):561-571

The management of the water resources of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) has long been contested, and the effects of the recent Millennium drought and subsequent flooding events have generated acute contests over the appropriate allocation of water supplies to agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. This water-availability crisis has driven demand for improved knowledge of climate change trends, cycles of variability, the range of historical climates experienced by natural systems and the ecological health of the system relative to a past benchmark. A considerable volume of research on the past climates of southeastern Australia has been produced over recent decades, but much of this work has focused on longer geological time-scales, and is of low temporal resolution. Less evidence has been generated of recent climate change at the level of resolution that accesses the cycles of change relevant to management. Intra-decadal and near-annual resolution (high-resolution) records do exist and provide evidence of climate change and variability, and of human impact on systems, relevant to natural-resource management. There exist now many research groups using a range of proxy indicators of climate that will rapidly escalate our knowledge of management-relevant, climate change and variability. This review assembles available climate and catchment change research within, and in the vicinity of, the MDB and portrays the research activities that are responding to the knowledge need. It also discusses how paleoclimate scientists may better integrate their pursuits into the resource-management realm to enhance the utility of the science, the effectiveness of the management measures and the outcomes for the end users.  相似文献   

基于机载LiDAR数据的建筑物轮廓提取     

朱依民  田林亚  毕继鑫  林松 《测绘通报》2019,(12):65-70

建筑物轮廓作为建筑物三维重建的重要元素，在建立智慧城市和数字城市中至关重要。本文针对从机载激光雷达点云中提取建筑物轮廓数据处理的点云滤波、建筑物屋顶面提取、建筑物轮廓提取，以及提取精度评定各环节存在的一些问题，提出了一种综合区域生长改进算法、三维Hough变换算法和α-shape算法的建筑物轮廓提取方法。该方法在对机载LiDAR点云数据去噪的基础上，首先利用改进的区域生长算法滤波地面点，并基于地物点到地面的归一化高程特征通过高度阈值去除高度较为低矮的地物点；再基于三维Hough变换算法从剩余建筑物和高大树木点云中提取建筑物平面；最后使用α-shape算法提取建筑物的轮廓信息。对使用RIEGLVQ-1560i机载激光雷达测量系统扫描的某城区点云数据进行计算，通过匹配度、形状相似度和位置精度等评价指标对提取的建筑物轮廓进行精度评定。结果表明，综合区域生长改进算法、三维Hough变换算法和α-shape算法的建筑物轮廓提取方法可以准确提取建筑物的轮廓信息，对于大范围的建筑物轮廓提取具有稳定性和普遍适用性。  相似文献   

Immunotoxicity Effect of Benzo[α]Pyrene on Scallop Chlamys f arreri     

ZHANG Lin  PAN Luqing  LIU Jing 《青岛海洋大学学报(英文版)》2009,(1):89-94

The toxic effects of benzo[α]pyrene （B[α]P） at different concentrations （0.1, 0.5, 1, 2.5 and 7.5 μgL^-1） on scallop （Chlamys farreri） immune system were studied. The results showed that B[α]P had significant toxic effects on the haemocyte counts, neutral red uptake, phagocytosis, bacteriolytic and antibacterial activity （P〈0.05）, while the seawater control and acetone control had no significant differences. The haemocyte counts, neutral red uptake, phagocytosis and bacteriolytic activity in all B[α]P treatment groups as well as antibacterial activity in groups of 0.5, 1, 2.5 and 7.5 μgL^-1·B[α]P decreased significantly （P〈0.05）. Some of these indices tended to be stable on the sixth day and others on the ninth day, and the indices showed clear time- and concentration-response to B[α]E Bactenolytic activity in 0.1 μgL^-1 B[α]P treatment group and antibacterial activity in 0.1 ggLl and 0.5 μgL^-1 B[α]P treatment groups increased at the beginning of exposure and reached their peaks on day 1 and day 6, respectively. Following that, both activities decreased gradually and became stable after day 9. When all the indices reached stability, they were significantly lower than those in control group （P〈0.05）, except for antibacterial activity in 0.1 μgLl B[α]P treatment group （P〉0.05）. Thus, B[α]P has evident toxic effects on scallop immune system, which supports the view that a relationship exists between pollution and lmmunomodulation in aquatic organisms.  相似文献   

The magnitude and color of the Saturn system     

Richard W. Schmude Jr. 《Icarus》2011,211(1):732-739

Brightness measurements made during 1963-1965 and 1991-2009 are used in constructing models of the brightness of the Saturn system in the Johnson B, V, R and I system. The models cover nearly the full range of phase angles and ring opening angles visible from the Earth and are believed to be accurate to 0.03-0.05 magnitudes. A U-filter model is also selected which covers ring opening angles of between 4° and 14°. The model is the first such one that treats the light from the rings as a function of the saturnicentric latitude from the Earth and Sun in a way that is consistent with observations and theoretical considerations. Six conclusions of this work are: (1) the Saturn system brightens as the solar phase angle decreases, (2) the Saturn system has an opposition surge, (3) the opposition surge increases as the ring opening angle increases, (4) the solar phase angle coefficient increases as the ring opening angle increases, (5) the B-V, V-R and R-I color indexes change by up to 0.2 magnitudes as Saturn orbits the Sun and (6) the V-filter model in this report is a better fit to the 1963-2009 data than the one proposed by Harris (Harris, D.L. [1961]. In: Kuiper, G.P., Middlehurst, B.M. (Eds), Planets and Satellites. Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL, pp. 272-342].  相似文献   

Protophyllocladoxylon jingyuanense sp.nov.,a Gymnospermous Wood of the Serpukhovian (Late Mississippian) from Gansu,Northwest China     

ZHANG Yi  WANG Jun  LIU Lujun  LI Nan 《《地质学报》英文版》2010,84(2):257-268

<正>A new species of gymnospermous fossil wood,Protophyllocladoxylon jingyuanense sp.nov., is described from the lower part of the Tsingyuan Formation(Serpukhovian/Late Mississippian),near the coal mine of Ciyao,Gansu,northwestern China.The specimen is preserved only in silicified secondary xylem,while growth rings are absent.Pits in radial tracheidal walls are araucaroid in type, uniseriate,occasionally biseriate.Xylem rays are homogeneous,uniseriate,occasionally biseriate. Cross-field pits are simple,large,one to two in number.Axial parenchyma is absent.The anatomical characters and geographic distribution of Protophyllocladoxylon woods through geological ages are documented.Those species with axial parenchyma and without growth rings live in warm climate, whereas the species without axial parenchyma and with growth rings are present either in warm or cool climate.The ideal living climate for Protophyllocladoxylon woods is warm and wet.Our new species,as a fossil wood of Early Carboniferous,is likely the earliest known species of Protophyllocladoxylon.  相似文献